萨根标准

萨根标准（英语：Sagan standard）指的是一句格言，认为“超凡主张须有超凡证据”（Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence，简称ECREE）^[1]。

理据

不平凡主张指的是不为既有的证据，也就是“平凡”证据所支持的主张。这类主张必须有新观测到的证据来支持，不然就是要重新诠释既有证据，而这样做很“超凡”。

有学者认为这格言是改写自拉普拉斯的格言（英语：Laplace's Principle），该格言认为“超凡主张提出的证据必须与其奇异度成正比”。^{[注 1]}

有学者认为超凡主张须有超凡证据是科学思考、批判思考和理性思考的一项重要原则^[2]^[3]。

历史

这句格言在1980年电视节目Cosmos因卡尔·萨根而变得普及。^[4]有两篇1978年的文章也都用了一样的句子，其中一篇刊载在《美国新闻与世界报道》，另一篇则由科内如‧罗摩奎师那‧劳欧（英语：Koneru Ramakrishna Rao）所撰写并刊在《超心理学期刊》（Journal of parapsychology），两篇皆受之后成为《科学》期刊编辑的物理学家菲力普·艾贝尔森所引用。^[5]^[6]

一些人指出，在更早以前，就已有非常类似但表达方式不同的说法。皮埃尔-西蒙·拉普拉斯就曾说过“不寻常主张的证据量必须与其不寻常度成比例。”^[7]^[8]1808年，托马斯·杰斐逊曾说：“每天有成千上万我们无法解释的现象出现，但对于尚待得知的自然法则间缺乏类同的那些提出的可能真相，验证其真伪所需的证据，与验证难度成比例。”^{[注 2]}^[9]在1978年的《论非凡：尝试澄清》（On the Extraordinary: An Attempt at Clarification）一文中，社会学家马塞罗·突鲁西（Marcello Truzzi）说：“非凡主张需要非凡证明。”^{[注 3]}^[10]

在2004年，脚踏车选手蓝斯·阿姆斯壮曾以“超凡主张要有超凡证据”（Extraordinary allegations require extraordinary evidence）这段话回应记者大卫·华许提出他使用禁药的传闻。^[11]^{[注 4]}^[12]阿姆斯壮最终在2013年坦承使用禁药。^[13]

对此格言的批判

这句格言提升了对于非既有共识主张的证据标准，进而表现出对“正统”显著的支持，且对何谓“超凡证据”的判断，可以是主观且模棱两可，因此受到一些批评。大卫・戴明（David Deming）写道说：“科学不考虑两类证据。误用‘非凡主张要有非凡证据’不可免会导致减慢以科学建立可信知识的目标，应避免因而压抑创新及保持正统的状况。”^{[注 5]}^[14]

参见

注释

^ 原文：the weight of evidence for an extraordinary claim must be proportioned to its strangeness.
^ 原文：A thousand phenomena present themselves daily which we cannot explain, but where facts are suggested, bearing no analogy with the laws of nature as yet known to us, their verity needs proofs proportioned to their difficulty.
^ 原文：an extraordinary claim requires extraordinary proof.
^ 阿姆斯壮之后被问说：“在你身上到底有些什么，使得平常的证据不足以把你搞倒？对于杀人犯，我们不寻求非凡的证明，我们指寻求证明，但你说这些证明必须是非凡的，为什么？”，原文："What is it about you that makes ordinary proof insufficient to bring you down? For murderers, we're not looking for extraordinary proof, we're looking for proof. But you're saying it must be extraordinary. Why?".
^ 原文：Science does not contemplate two types of evidence. The misuse of ECREE ["extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence"] to suppress innovation and maintain orthodoxy should be avoided as it must inevitably retard the scientific goal of establishing reliable knowledge.

参考资料

^ Marc Kaufman, First Contact: Scientific Breakthroughs in the Hunt for Life Beyond Earth, Simon and Schuster, p. 124.
^ Tressoldi, Patrizio E. Extraordinary Claims Require Extraordinary Evidence: The Case of Non-Local Perception, a Classical and Bayesian Review of Evidences. Frontiers in Psychology. 2011, 2 (117): 117. PMC 3114207 . PMID 21713069. doi:10.3389/fpsyg.2011.00117 .
^ Smith, Jonathan C. Pseudoscience and Extraordinary Claims of the Paranormal: A Critical Thinker's Toolkit. John Wiley & Sons. 2011. ISBN 978-1444358940.
^ Sagan, Carl. Encyclopaedia Galactica. Cosmos. 第12集. 01:24 记录于. December 14, 1980. PBS.
^ A Stepchild of Science Starts to Win Friends. U.S. News & World Report. 1978-07-31: 41–42 [2017-10-14]. （原始内容存档于2017-10-15）. Philip H. Abelson, editor of the authoritative journal Science, agrees that parapsychological research has improved markedly, but he is dubious about the results. "These extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence," he contends.
^ Rao, K.R., 1978, Psi: Its place in nature. Journal of Parapsychology vol 42.
^ Flournoy, Théodore. Des Indes à la planète Mars: étude sur un cas de somnambulisme avec glossolalie. Slatkine. 1899: 344–345 [2019-01-17]. （原始内容存档于2020-10-02）.
^ Flournoy, Théodore. From India to the Planet Mars: A Study of a Case of Somnambulism. Daniel D. Vermilye, trans. Cosimo, Inc. 2007: 369–370 [2019-01-17]. ISBN 9781602063570. （原始内容存档于2017-02-22）.
^ Berkes, Anna. Who is the liar now?. monticello.org. Thomas Jefferson Foundation. 2008-11-14 [2016-10-29]. （原始内容存档于2016-10-30）. Letter to Daniel Salmon on 15 February 1808 discusing the nature and origin of meteorites. U.S. Library of Congress image （页面存档备份，存于互联网档案馆）
^ Marcello Truzzi, "On the Extraordinary: An Attempt at Clarification （页面存档备份，存于互联网档案馆）", Zetetic Scholar（英语：Zetetic Scholar）, Vol. 1, No. 1, p. 11, 1978.
^ Fotheringham, William. Lance Armstrong shying away from a fight is an extraordinary moment - William Fotheringham. 2012-08-24 [2019-01-17]. （原始内容存档于2018-11-07） –通过www.theguardian.com.
^ Chappell, Matt. The State Of Doping In Sport In 2015, By David Walsh. AskMen. [2019-01-18]. （原始内容存档于2019-01-19）.
^ CNN, By Chelsea J. Carter. Lance Armstrong facing lifetime ban, loss of titles. CNN. [2019-01-18]. （原始内容存档于2019-01-19）.
^ Deming, D. Philosophia (2016) 44: 1319. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11406-016-9779-7

[2] 原文：the weight of evidence for an extraordinary claim must be proportioned to its strangeness.

[10] 原文：A thousand phenomena present themselves daily which we cannot explain, but where facts are suggested, bearing no analogy with the laws of nature as yet known to us, their verity needs proofs proportioned to their difficulty.

[12] 原文：an extraordinary claim requires extraordinary proof.

[15] 阿姆斯壮之后被问说：“在你身上到底有些什么，使得平常的证据不足以把你搞倒？对于杀人犯，我们不寻求非凡的证明，我们指寻求证明，但你说这些证明必须是非凡的，为什么？”，原文："What is it about you that makes ordinary proof insufficient to bring you down? For murderers, we're not looking for extraordinary proof, we're looking for proof. But you're saying it must be extraordinary. Why?".

[18] 原文：Science does not contemplate two types of evidence. The misuse of ECREE ["extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence"] to suppress innovation and maintain orthodoxy should be avoided as it must inevitably retard the scientific goal of establishing reliable knowledge.

[1] Marc Kaufman, First Contact: Scientific Breakthroughs in the Hunt for Life Beyond Earth, Simon and Schuster, p. 124.

[sstandard-3] Tressoldi, Patrizio E. Extraordinary Claims Require Extraordinary Evidence: The Case of Non-Local Perception, a Classical and Bayesian Review of Evidences. Frontiers in Psychology. 2011, 2 (117): 117. PMC 3114207 . PMID 21713069. doi:10.3389/fpsyg.2011.00117 .

[4] Smith, Jonathan C. Pseudoscience and Extraordinary Claims of the Paranormal: A Critical Thinker's Toolkit. John Wiley & Sons. 2011. ISBN 978-1444358940.

[5] Sagan, Carl. Encyclopaedia Galactica. Cosmos. 第12集. 01:24 记录于. December 14, 1980. PBS.

[usnews78-6] A Stepchild of Science Starts to Win Friends. U.S. News & World Report. 1978-07-31: 41–42 [2017-10-14]. （原始内容存档于2017-10-15）. Philip H. Abelson, editor of the authoritative journal Science, agrees that parapsychological research has improved markedly, but he is dubious about the results. "These extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence," he contends.

[7] Rao, K.R., 1978, Psi: Its place in nature. Journal of Parapsychology vol 42.

[8] Flournoy, Théodore. Des Indes à la planète Mars: étude sur un cas de somnambulisme avec glossolalie. Slatkine. 1899: 344–345 [2019-01-17]. （原始内容存档于2020-10-02）.

[9] Flournoy, Théodore. From India to the Planet Mars: A Study of a Case of Somnambulism. Daniel D. Vermilye, trans. Cosimo, Inc. 2007: 369–370 [2019-01-17]. ISBN 9781602063570. （原始内容存档于2017-02-22）.

[11] Berkes, Anna. Who is the liar now?. monticello.org. Thomas Jefferson Foundation. 2008-11-14 [2016-10-29]. （原始内容存档于2016-10-30）. Letter to Daniel Salmon on 15 February 1808 discusing the nature and origin of meteorites. U.S. Library of Congress image （页面存档备份，存于互联网档案馆）

[13] Marcello Truzzi, "On the Extraordinary: An Attempt at Clarification （页面存档备份，存于互联网档案馆）", Zetetic Scholar（英语：Zetetic Scholar）, Vol. 1, No. 1, p. 11, 1978.

[14] Fotheringham, William. Lance Armstrong shying away from a fight is an extraordinary moment - William Fotheringham. 2012-08-24 [2019-01-17]. （原始内容存档于2018-11-07） –通过www.theguardian.com.

[16] Chappell, Matt. The State Of Doping In Sport In 2015, By David Walsh. AskMen. [2019-01-18]. （原始内容存档于2019-01-19）.

[17] CNN, By Chelsea J. Carter. Lance Armstrong facing lifetime ban, loss of titles. CNN. [2019-01-18]. （原始内容存档于2019-01-19）.

[19] Deming, D. Philosophia (2016) 44: 1319. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11406-016-9779-7

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